How OddSense works
The short version
OddSense does two things for each game: it compares the prices bookmakers offer with a fair value for the same outcome, and REF, its analyst, reads the game and says which bets it would take. It is not a bookmaker, it holds no money, and it never promises a result.
For each outcome we collect the prices of several bookmakers and keep the best one.
We remove each bookmaker’s margin and average what is left. The gap between the best price and that fair value is the edge.
REF looks at form, past meetings, the table and the news, gives each outcome a chance, and picks the bets worth their price.
REF’s picks
REF is OddSense’s analyst: an AI model that reads each game before kickoff and writes what it thinks. Its picks are opinions, and it can be wrong.
Each side’s recent results and how hard they were, their past meetings, the competition table, and what a web search turns up about the game: injuries, absences, changes. It only cites what it found there.
One bet per game: the one REF would take, with its read of the game, the reasons for it and at least one reason it could go the other way. It always shows first.
REF also gives its chance for every selection, and a pick in the markets where one is worth taking. Lines of the same kind (totals, handicap, team totals) share one pick and one read.
A market has no pick when nothing in it is worth its price by REF’s own numbers, when it would only repeat the main pick, or when it could not win together with it. The page then says REF found no value there.
Everything REF backs in a game has to be able to win at once: some final score wins the main pick and every market’s pick. It never backs a side to win and the other side’s handicap.
Each day REF chooses a few of its picks as singles and builds a few multiples from them, each with a suggested stake in units. Once a day’s games start, the day’s picks are never changed.
Analytics shows REF’s record: how many picks won, what they returned, and whether its chances were right. It is worked out from the finished games, with nothing left out.
Without an account you see each game’s first pick and today’s first pick of the day. A free account shows every pick, REF’s chances and reads in each market, and lets you ask REF questions.
Reading a price row
Every market on a game page is a list of rows like this one. Tap a row to open REF’s read of it.
The outcome you would back. The one marked Pick, in gold, is REF’s pick in that market. A market REF backs nothing in has no mark.
The highest decimal price among the bookmakers we compare. A price of 1.90 returns 1.90 for each 1 staked, stake included.
How likely REF thinks the outcome is, from 0 to 100. Where REF has not read the market yet, the bar shows agreement instead: how far the bookmakers line up on the price.
Adds the price to your slip, to record the bet you place with a bookmaker. OddSense does not place bets. It goes away once the game starts.
How edge works
Edge compares a price with fair value. It never says what will happen.
Each bookmaker’s prices become probabilities: one divided by the price.
Each bookmaker’s probabilities are scaled to add up to 100%, which takes its margin out.
The margin-free probabilities are averaged across the bookmakers. That is the fair probability.
Multiply the best price by the fair probability and subtract one. That is the edge.
- 38.5%
- 2.50
- +4.0%
A price counts as above fair value when its edge is at least 0.4%. The cutoff keeps tiny rounding differences between bookmakers from counting.
A positive edge does not mean the outcome will happen or that you will profit. It can also mean one bookmaker is out of line with the rest, or that a price has gone stale.
Edge only exists where we compare several bookmakers: the main games of the next 24 hours. A game with one bookmaker’s price has a fair value and no edge.
They can reflect a stale price, a thin market with few bookmakers, or a long shot where the consensus is less reliable. REF does not back a price just because its edge is big.
Agreement
Agreement says how far to trust a market’s fair value: it is not the chance of winning. It shows on a price where REF has not given its own chance.
More bookmakers quoting the market means a sturdier consensus. It counts up to ten.
When the bookmakers’ probabilities sit close together, agreement is high. When they spread out, it drops.
A bar and a word, with a score out of 100 beside the bar.
The slip
The slip is where you put the bets you place with a bookmaker, to keep a history of them. It does not place bets.
What you put on the bet, in your currency (Account → Appearance).
The price of the leg when you added it. A multiple’s odds are its legs’ odds multiplied.
A multiple is one bet where every leg has to win. Singles are one bet per leg.
Your stake times the odds: what comes back if the bet wins.
Your history is on your account page. A bet closes on its own once its games have finished, usually within a couple of hours, and the bell at the top tells you whether it won or lost. A price can’t be added once its game has started.
Live games
While a game is on, the page shows a live clock, the score and what happened. Here is how to read it.
- UpcomingHas not kicked off.
- LiveHas kicked off and is not over yet. Its prices are the last ones from before kickoff.
- FinishedMarked finished by a source, or long past kickoff: three hours for football.
- 57'From the live scoreboard.
- ~57'An estimate from the kickoff time, used when the scoreboard doesn’t cover the game. Breaks and stoppage time make it a guess.
- Goal
- Own goal, listed under the team that benefits
- Yellow card
- Red card
- Substitution: the player coming on, then the player going off
The clock, score, goals, cards, substitutions, match stats and final results come from a public live scoreboard for the games it covers. That scoreboard is unofficial, doesn’t cover every league, and can be a couple of minutes behind. For a game it doesn’t cover, the final result comes later from the provider of the prices.
You can look back two days. A finished game shows the last prices stored before kickoff, read-only, and whether each of REF’s picks won or lost.
Data and limits
OddsPapi. For the main games of the next 24 hours we compare about 15 bookmakers: fair value is their average with each one’s margin taken out, and that is what the edge is measured against. The other games show a single sharp bookmaker’s price and its fair value, with nothing to compare it with, so no edge. The best price shown is the best among those we compare, not necessarily the best in the whole market.
Refreshed once a day, during the night in Portugal, so they can be hours old. A bookmaker may have moved or withdrawn a price since. Always check the price on the bookmaker’s site before you bet.
Football. About 90 competitions: the main European leagues and cups, UEFA’s club competitions, national teams, and the top leagues of Brazil, Argentina, the USA, Mexico and others, men’s and women’s. Markets: match result, double chance, draw no bet, totals, team totals, handicap and both teams to score.
Bookmakers usually post prices close to a game, so games more than a few days ahead aren’t listed. A bookmaker may not offer a market, the competition may not be one we follow, and REF may not have read a game that was added late.
More questions
Is OddSense a bookmaker?
No. It doesn’t take bets and never holds your money. You place bets with the bookmaker yourself.
What is REF?
REF is OddSense’s analyst: an AI model that reads each game (form, past meetings, the table, the news) and writes its read, the chance it gives each outcome, and the bets it would take.
It is an opinion, worked out before kickoff from what was known then. It can be wrong, and it never claims a result is certain.
Does OddSense tell me who will win?
It tells you what REF thinks is likely and which bets it would take, with the chance it gives each. That is an estimate, not a promise: a pick REF rates at 70% still loses about three times in ten.
The other figures on the site (fair value, edge, agreement) compare prices and predict nothing.
How do I know if REF is any good?
Open Analytics. It shows how many of REF’s picks won, what they would have returned at the prices shown before kickoff, and how its chances compared with what happened. It is worked out from the finished games every time you open it, and no pick is left out.
Why can’t I see every pick?
Without an account, each game shows its first pick and the picks of the day show today’s first bet. Creating an account is free and shows the rest: every market’s pick, REF’s chances and reads, earlier days’ picks, and the chat with REF.
Why does a market have no pick?
Because REF found nothing in it worth taking: the likeliest outcome pays too little for its chance, the pick would only repeat the main one, or it couldn’t win together with the main pick. A market REF hasn’t read yet says so instead.
Is this betting advice?
No. REF’s picks are its opinion and the figures are estimates, for information. Every bet can lose, and the decision is always yours. If you bet, only stake what you can afford to lose, and use the deposit limit and helpline links in the footer if you need them.
What is closing edge?
For games already played, the prices shown are the last ones we stored before kickoff, and their edge is the closing edge. These are history, not offers, so they can’t be added to a slip.
Estimates and opinions for information, not a promise of a result or betting advice. Every bet can lose.